The Real Groundhog Day Forecast Experts – NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Ah yes. It is the time of year in which people look to rodents for short-term climate forecasts. It is a fun tradition and has its place in society as long as people keep it in the proper context – fun and folklore. This year Punxsutawney Phil apparently saw his shadow. According to legend, this means six more weeks of winter. By contrast, Georgia rodent forecaster General Beauregard Lee indicates that we are in for an early spring. This inconsistency highlights that Groundhog Day is more about tradition than science. However, there is a reliable source for seasonal forecast information in the 6-day to 3-month time frame. It is called the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

NOAA CPC, according to its website, is “responsible for issuing seasonal climate outlook maps for one to thirteen months in the future.” Believe it or not, there is actually a science-based organization that does what the groundhog gets so much coverage to do, and its based on actual data and models. CPC also issues extended range weather outlook maps in the 6 to 10 and 8-14 day range. For example, the two maps below show the 3-month temperature and precipitation probability outlooks for the continental United States. These maps provide an assessment for the period of February to April.

From these maps, it appears that temperatures are likely to trend above average for the next three months with below-average precipitation in the southern tier of the country. At the NOAA CPC website, you can also find 1-month outlooks, drought information, and hazard outlooks without having to wait for that one special day of the year. My colleague Danielle Joyner Kelley, a Florida-based meteorologist, sums up CPC nicely. She wrote on social media, “The real “groundhog” to meteorologists: The Climate Prediction Center (except they are professional, educated scientists).”

By the way, the next 6-10 days look pretty chilly. The CPC analysis gives high probabilities of below-normal temperatures (graphic above). Bitterly cold air will plunge into the eastern United States. The upper Midwest is likely the sweet spot for some of the coldest air of the season. My friends in Florida may even have to break out the boots and a coat. It is tempting to say that Phil was right about more winter. However, I am more inclined to say that it is still winter and February in the Northern Hemisphere.